Jerusalem Studio

Earlier this week, President Trump remarked that he hopes to soon have good news on the results of talks between the American and Iranian delegations who have been negotiating a new agreement to curtail Iran’s nuclear program. Trump appears to be optimistic, which could be based on status reports he is getting, or perhaps it…

The events generated as a result of the horrific Hamas attack on Israel almost 20 months ago have dealt severe blows to the various forces which Iran’s Revolutionary Guard has deployed throughout the Middle East with the aim of taking on Israel and the West. Hezbollah, Hamas, and Syrian-based Shiite Asian militias - while not…

US-Israel Cooperation to Ensure Iran Doesn’t Attain Nuclear Weapons - Jerusalem Studio 942 Both the US and Israel have been adamant for around the last fifteen years that the Islamic Republic of Iran will never acquire nuclear weapons. Successive American administrations have pledged to spare no effort in convincing Tehran that if diplomacy and pressures…

Donald Trump’s Arabian Peninsula tour puts in stark relief the administration’s foreign policy in the Middle east. The President focused on the Gulf, rather than on the Levant, and the leaders of Syria and Lebanon made their pilgrimages East in order to curry favour with him. Trump's focus was clearly on the economic aspects of…

Israel's Peace Accords : Prospects for Future Normalization - Jerusalem Studio 940 During the seventy-seven years of its sovereign statehood, Israel has signed peace accords with two of its neighbours, namely, Egypt and Jordan. A third one, with Lebanon, was dead on arrival due to Syrian pressure. An interim deal, the Oslo Agreement - reached…

For the last five months Israel has had to adjust its Syrian policy to fit the post-Assad reality. The born-again image that the new ruler Joulani is trying to project is rightfully viewed with well-earned suspicion. Turkey’s domination of its southern neighbour is considered a potential threat, and its pro-Druze policy is viewed favourably by…

The Iranian-backed Houthi War vs the West : Jerusalem Studio 938 If one judges solely by input, the American campaign against the Houthi aggression out of Yemen is impressive, with more than 1000 targets hit since mid-March. However, if the standard is the output, there is little evidence that the Ansar-Allah tribe and its local…

The Trump Administration is yet to publish its National Security doctrine, and there may be some changes relative to the two most recent documents, from 2018 and 2012 respectively, where the focus was on China as the so-called pacing competitor and Russia as the acute one. Whatever the case, these two countries still remain the…

Iran's Nuclear Aspirations : is its Weaponization Program Preventable? Jerusalem Studio 936 Even if the negotiations between the American and Iranian delegations under passive Omani auspices succeed, it is simply realistic to assume that Iran will not totally give up its aspirations to acquire nuclear weapons. Whatever agreement may emerge, with whatever inspection and verification…

Thwarting Iran’s nuclear ambitions: Diplomacy or War - Jerusalem Studio 935 The American-Iranian talks, under Omani auspices, have entered their third week. The stakes are high. During Obama’s time in office, there was a sense of urgency due to the understanding that if diplomacy fails Israel will probably attack the Iranian Nuclear facilities, but there…

The first meeting between senior American and Iranian officials, in Muscat on Saturday, was deemed a positive start by both parties. They managed to have both indirect talks through their Omani host and a short direct encounter outside their separate rooms. Opening positions were presented and are being analyzed ahead of a second meeting. This…

Turkey's efforts to consolidate HTS power in Syria - Jerusalem Studio 933 Turkey’s autocratic ruler, Erdogan, is quite open about his dreams, or perhaps delusions, of grandeur. He longs for the golden age of the Ottoman Empire to return and will likely not object to Being Sultan Recep the Magnificent. Erdogan’s protege - his junior…

President Trump’s meeting with Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House earlier this week had several issues on the agenda. While all of them are undoubtedly important, none are as crucial as the need to coordinate Washington’s and Jerusalem’s policy vis-a-vis Iran’s nuclear program, as it appears poised for a break-out which could lead to…

Israel's Northern Challenges: Lebanon, Syria and Turkey - Jerusalem Studio 931 The ceasefire along Israel’s Lebanese border has been holding since late November. A few days after its inception, the Assad Regime collapsed, and with it the Syrian military threat to Israel. Turkey has no common boundary with Israel and its forces are relatively far…

The leaders of Syria and Turkey are not, in fact, identical twins. Erdogan has been in power for more than two decades already and suffers no challenges to his autocratic regime. A-Shara has ruled Damascus and some other parts of the country for less than five months and has difficulty in holding sway over all…

Around 15 to 20 years ago, the world’s defense organisations, military services and intelligence agencies started exploring the challenges and opportunities of cyber operations, and Israel was among a handful of leading nations in this innovative domain. However, others have now caught up, and the relatively new field of artificial intelligence is generating more excitement…

Gaza : Strategic and Tactical Aspects - Jerusalem Studio 928 Almost 18 months into the IDF counter-offensive against the HAMAS perpetrators of the October 7 massacre, and the foreseeable end of the Gaza war is still up in the air, or rather down in the tunnels. Negotiations on terms for releasing the remainder of the…

US to Frustrate Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions? Jerusalem Studio 927 Recently, Secretary of State Marco Rubio laid out the Trump administration’s priorities vis-a-vis Iran’s nuclear plans. He reiterated their determination to pre-empt Iran’s quest for weaponising its enriched fissile material. This is a given. No American President would allow Tehran to hold a nuclear dagger pointed…

The post-Assad regime in Syria is now waking up from its dreams of unifying the war-torn, multi-ethnic country under its rule. Syria's neighbors are Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan and Israel, most of whom are either threatening or being threatened most of the time. Due to various communities within Syria feeling vulnerable under this constant state…

During the past decade, as the Islamic Republic of Iran has been preparing to do battle with Israel, or at least to deter it from a strike on its nuclear infrastructure, a network of proxies was being built from the Persian Gulf to the Eastern Mediterranean to the Red Sea. The idea was to prepare…

President Trump seems to approach the growing danger of Iran acquiring nuclear weapons from two opposites simultaneously. Trump, in private messages and public statements, is both courting and threatening Tehran. He repeats the pledge to do whatever is necessary to preempt the Iranian from dashing towards the finish line, and broadly hints that he would…

Ahmed a-Shar'a’s honeymoon as Syria’s new ruler lasted exactly three months and ended predictably in bloodshed. Hundreds of civilians, mostly members of the Alawite minority - which flourished under the despotic Assad dynasty - were massacred by the new regime’s loyalists. A-Shar’a’s efforts to portray his Jihadist identity as belonging to the past were exposed…

Iran’s Nuclear aspirations: should Israel strike? – Jerusalem Studio 922 After several decades of building its Nuclear potential, which threatens the entire Middle East but most especially Israel, Iran is now in a unique position. It is at the same time most dangerous and weakest. The highly enriched fissile material it has accumulated is enough…

Earlier this week, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that his government would insist on demilitarising the Southern Syria territory between Damascus and the Golan Heights border, in order to avert any takeover by hostile forces. He also mentioned the top of Mount Hermon, on the Syrian side, as a high ground that Israel would defensively…

The Islamic Republic of Iran continues to remain Israel's biggest threat, regardless of what is happening on other fronts, the majority of which also emanates from the Iranian master plot to annhialite the Jewish State. For the rest of the world, the spectre of an Iranian nuclear arsenal is unsettling but not an existential threat.…

The Islamic Republic of Iran appears to operate on two parallel and mutually supporting tracks. While slowly but surely building up its nuclear stockpile, it simultaneously conducts malign and militant activities in its local region as well as further afield in other continents and bodies of water. The executive agents involved are both their own…

Through thick and thin, across the decades, wars, and administrations, the US-Israel relationship has endured and grown stronger. This is our starting point for today’s discussion on the state of this partnership. This alliance is now facing many challenges and complexities in the Mideast region, from Gaza to Lebanon and all the way to Iran.…

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The first stage of the hostage release deal between Israel and Hamas is now at mid-point. So what may happen in the latter half of this stage, and will there be a second stage? POTUS’ proposal to empty Gaza of its population, thereby stripping Hamas of its power to rule the Strip and threaten Israel,…

When Israeli civilian and military leaders consider their strategic vista, it is imperative for them to see the forest rather than the trees. It is easy to focus, or even fixate, on the problem of the day, instead of clinging to a coherent context and deriving the details from it. So what are the most…

Iran entered 2024 with the apparent realization of Qassem Soleimani’s scheme : the development of a regional system of proxies, each receiving guidance from Tehran, acting out of various geographic locations, with the sole aim of harassing Israel, the West and moderate Arab countries. Come 2025, this plan is now in shambles. Hamas and Hezbollah…

Last week, President Trump appeared to throw a wrench into Iran’s strategic deliberations when he sounded willing to negotiate a new nuclear deal with the Islamic Republic. Also, should this effort fail, he may even be open to supporting an Israeli strike on the Iranian nuclear facilities. Whatever the Iranians position - either a dash…

With the Gaza ceasefire in its first week and the Lebanon one in its last (although it will most likely be extended) the Iran-Israel confrontation has now entered a new phase. For the first time since October 7, the guns and missiles have fallen silent, with even the Houthis announcing that they will hold their…

While one important governmental transition ended yesterday, having global implications, another one with regional repercussions is still ongoing, and there is a connection between the two. The new, post-Assad regime in Damascus under Ahmed al-Shara is still being organised, with simultaneous efforts being undertaken in foreign policy as well as domestic realignment. Al-Shara and his…

When Donald Trump once again takes the oath of office, the entire world will be waiting anxiously to see whether the priorities, policies and promises he made during the Presidential Campaign will stand true when tested by reality. This, of course, will include the Middle East, although probably not featured at the top of Trump’s…

Outgoing CIA director Bill Burns described over the weekend the decision point facing the Iranian regime: this being whether to try and reach military nuclear power, running the risk of drawing the regime’s adversaries into a preemptive blow, or to signal its readiness to negotiate a deal with the incoming Trump administration. If the latter…

Historians are often fond of saying that periods are not always marked by round numbers, but rather by events, whenever they happen. For instance, the 20th Century really started in 1914, with the First World War. According to this standard, 2025 will strategically begin three weeks after New Year’s Day, with the change in administrations…

When 2024 came knocking on Israel’s door, there was still a sense of shock bordering on disbelief at the horrendous events of October 7, yet there was also hope that military victory over Hamas would be swift and decisive, and that more than 100 hostages would be set free, either by rescue raids or by…

Less than two weeks after Bashar el-Assad fled Damascus for Moscow and the IDF destroyed the bulk of the Syrian air, naval, missile, and research and development power, future prospects for Syria both internally and externally remain vague. Who will eventually control it? Will Syria become a sovereign nation in fact and not only in…

For more than twenty years now, ever since the American invasion of Iraq made the Tehran leadership fearful of a follow-up move against Iran, its military nuclear program has been advanced but constrained, lest an attack by either Israel or the US or both destroy this precious investment so dear to the Regime’s heart. But…

The first strategic challenge in considering Syria’s future has to do with its very nature - will it be a nation-state, with a central government and institutions - both military and civilian - or will it split into several entities, along ethnic and geographical lines? Then there is the challenge of Islamist and Jihadist forces…

The rapid collapse of the Assad regime at the onslaught of rebel forces has left Syria in a fluid condition, with a transformation back to solid-state sure to take some time, if at all. Regional as well as global players are jockeying for influence over the emerging composition of the provisional government, its leaders and…

Some 45 days before Joe Biden’s movers vacate the White House for the new tenant, returning to the place he reluctantly left four years earlier, the looming Trump Presidency has an evident impact on Middle Eastern dynamics. A major topic, as always, is the Iranian nuclear project. Trump’s record is known in Tehran, but so…

The basic facts about Syria are as simple as the situation there is not. Syria borders Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon, Jordan and Israel. It is of major strategic importance for Russia. For the last 54 years the Syrian regime was held by the Assad family, but since 2011 the country has been torn apart by civil…

Israel’s national security and peaceful co-existence in the Middle East has not been guaranteed for a single moment since the Jewish State was established 76 years ago. It triumphed over its enemies in several wars and countless campaigns and battles but could never be satisfied that it is finally and irreversibly victorious. So now that…

Strategically, Iran is evidently on course to reaching military nuclear power, as circumstances permit. Tactically, it is taking the measure of both the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump Presidency, in order to maximise benefit and minimise cost. How does it go about it, in the two months ir so left for the transition…

The so-called “Ring of Fire” around Israel, which was conceived by Qassem Soleimani in the long years he headed the Revolutionary Guards Qods Force, was supposed to consist of Iranian proxies throughout the Middle East, ready to spring into action when ordered by Tehran. The first part, build-up, was essentially completed, but rather than wait…

With Donald Trump’s resounding election victory, the Iranian regime is facing a pressing dilemma as it prepares for the handover from the Biden administration. Trump abrogated the JCPOA and ordered the killing of Qassam Soleimani, but is now excluding from his foreign relations and national security team the mastermind of maximum pressure, Mike Pompeo. So…